About Me

  • Guillaume Horny
  • guillaume[dot]horny[at]banque-france[dot]fr
  • (+33) 1 42 97 71 21
  • horny.economics.free.fr

Head of the financial economics research division at the Banque de France (Paris).

This is a private website. The views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France or the Eurosystem.

Research Interests:

  • financial economics
  • banking
  • monetary policy

Activities

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Working Papers

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Other Papers

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Ongoing Projects

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Teaching

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Vitae

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Journal Articles

2023

Monetary policy transmission through banks when liquidity is abundant but unevenly distributed,

with M. Girotti, Finance Research Letters, 56, 104061.

We study how the distribution of excess liquidity amongst banks alters the transmission of policy rate hikes to bank interest rates. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we measure the difference in the pricing behavior of the 19 euro-area banking systems depending on their excess liquidity holdings when the European Central Bank’s Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) increases. According to our estimations, every 100 bp increase in the DFR, banking systems holding one additional standard deviation of excess liquidity apply a 1.9 bp higher interest rate on new checking accounts and between 3.2 and 6.8 bp lower interest rates on new loans.

2022

The real effects of invoicing exports in dollars,

with A. Berthou and J.-S. Mésonnier, Journal of International Economics, 135, 103569.

The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. We exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedging against US dollar fluctuations for French exporters. we show that exporters with a higher propensity to use hedging instruments reduced more their exports to “US dollar destinations” after this shock.

2018

Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market,

with S. Manganelli and B. Mojon, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11-74, 1-19.

We analyse the determinants of euro area non-financial corporate bonds since the early 2000s, so as to gauge deviations from the law of one price. In 2011–2012, high credit risk premia were accompanied by strong and persistent signs of market fragmentation in Italy and Spain (but not in France)

2017

The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the Euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises,

with Avouyi-Dovi, S. and P. Sevestre, Journal of Banking and Finance, 79, 74-94.

We assess the slowdown in the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy over the last crises. Impediments to the transmission of monetary rates depend on the heterogeneity in banks marginal costs and therefore, its risks.

2013

Quel a été l'impact de la crise de 2008 sur la défaillance des entreprises?

with Fougère, D., Golfier, C. and E. Kremp, Economie et Statistique, 462, 69-97

La crise de 2008 s'est traduite par une accélération des défaillances. Elle est à l'origine d'un quart à la moitié des défaillances observées entre 2008 et 2010 en France, selon les secteurs.

2013

Capital Utilisation and retirement

with Bonleu, A. and G. Cette, Applied Economics, 45, 3483-3494.

We analyze firms' capital retirement over the businness cycle. Wear and tear effect is small and firms' capital retirement is mostly counteryclical.

2012

Évolution des inégalités salariales en France : le rôle des effets de composition

with Verdugo, G. and H. Fraisse, Revue Économique, 2012(6), 33-65.

La baisse des rendements de l'éducation et de l'expérience a produit une structure des salaires en 2008 parmi les plus égalitaires jamais observées en France depuis les années 1960

2012

Job Durations With Worker- and Firm-Specific Effects: MCMC Estimation With Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data

with Mendes, R. and G.J. van den Berg, Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 30(3), 468-480.

Matching between employers and employees can impact job-to-job mobility. We discuss and estimate a reduced form model capturing this feature. We find a positive correlation between unobserved worker and firm characteristics

2010

Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple-spells competing risks models

with M. Picchio, Economics Letters, 106(3), 241-243

We show that lagged duration dependence is non-parametrically identified in mixed proportional hazard models for duration data, in the presence of competing risks and consecutive spells.

2010

Volatilité macroéconomique et règle d'indexation du SMIC

with H. Le Bihan, Economics Letters, Revue de l'OFCE, 112, 161-168.

La revalorisation du SMIC horaire peut être plus rapide que celle du salaire horaire de base ouvrier. Cet événement est toutefois très rare lorsque la volatilité macroénomique est faible

2009

Inference in Mixed Proportional Hazards Models with K random effects

Statistical Papers, 50(3), 481-499.

A general procedure to estimate Cox models with several random effects. It is far more quicker and stable than the usual EM algorithm

2008

Bayesian estimation of Cox models with random effects: An application to the ratification of ILO conventions

with Boockmann, B., Djurdjevic, D. and F. Laisney, Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 89(1), 193-214.

We show that the ratification of ILO conventions depends more on the convention itself than on the ratifying country

2008

Une étude empirique de la mobilité professionnelle avec employeurs et employés hétérogènes

with Mendes, R. et G.J. van den Berg, Revue Economique, 59(3), 631-639.

On mesure la corrélation entre les inobservables des employeurs et ceux des employés dans la mobilité professionnelle

2008

Modèles de hasards proportionnels et hétérogénéité non observée

Bulletin Français d'Actuariat, 15(8), 2-29.

Une revue de la littérature sur les modèles de Cox avec hétérogénéité inobservée, s'intéressant à la spécification, l'identification et l'estimation

Working Papers

Lost in Negative Territory? Search for Yield!

with Mattia Girotti and Jean-Guillaume Sahuc (pdf)

Bank Equity Value and Loan Supply

with Mattia Girotti (pdf)

Dollar Funding and Firm-Level Exports

with Antoine Berthou and Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier (pdf)

Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market

with Simone Manganelli and Benoît Mojon (pdf) Fragmentation Indicator

The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises

with Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Patrick Sevestre (pdf)

Quel a été l'impact de la crise de 2008 sur la défaillance des entreprises ?

with Denis Fougère, Cécile Golfier and Elisabeth Kremp (pdf)

The dynamics of bank loans short-term interest rates in the euro area: what lessons can we draw from the current crisis?

with Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Patrick Sevestre (pdf)

Évolution des Inégalités Salariales en France : le Rôle des Effets de Composition

with Gregory Verdugo and Henri Fraisse (pdf)

Capital Utilisation and Retirement

with Antoine Bonleu and Gilbert Cette (pdf)

Wage and price joint dynamics at the firm level: an empirical analysis

with Patrick Sevestre (pdf)

Identification of lagged duration dependence in multiple spells competing risks models

with Matteo Picchio (pdf). Previous version available at ECON (pdf).

Estimation bayésienne de modèles de Cox à effets aléatoires non-emboîtés : une application à la ratification des conventions de l'OIT par les pays en voie de développement

with Bernhard Boockmann, Dragana Djurdjevic, Guillaume Horny and François Laisney (pdf). Previous version available at the ZEW (pdf).

Inférence dans les modèles de mélange de hasards proportionnels à K effets aléatoires

(pdf)

Job durations with worker and firm specific effects: MCMC estimation with longitudinal employer-employee data

with Rute Mendes and Gerard J. van den Berg (pdf). Also available at the IFAU (pdf)

.

Hétérogénéité non observée dans les modèles de durée

(pdf)

Other papers and contributions to central bank publication

2016

The 20th anniversary of the Banque de France Foundation for research in monetary, financial and banking economics

with L. Bê Duc, Quarterly Selection of Articles - Banque de France Bulletins, 40, 19-27.

2015

Qu'est-ce que la politique monétaire?

Note d'information Banque de France, Septembre 2015.

2013

Corporate finance and economic activity in the Euro area

Structural Issue Report 2013, ECB Occasional Paper Series, 151.

2012

18th International Panel Data Conference: a brief synthesis

with F. Savignac and P. Sevestre, Quarterly Selection of Articles - Banque de France Bulletins, 26, 79-82.

2010

Firms' wage policies during the crisis: survey findings

with Montornès, J., Sauner-Leroy, J.-B. and S. Tarrieu, Quarterly Selection of Articles - Banque de France Bulletins, 17, 5-19.

Works in Progress

Teaching

Econometrics of panel data (2023-2024)

Introduction (pdf)100%

Chapter 1: Fixed effect models (pdf)100%

Chapter 2: Random effect models (pdf)100%

Chapter 3: Corellated errors models (pdf)100%

Chapter 4: Panel IV (pdf)100%

Conclusion (pdf)100%

Former courses:

  • A research patronage: The Banque de France Foundation for Economic Research (pdf)
  • Research function in the ESCB, Eurosystem (pdf)
  • Modèles non-linéaires pour données de panel, CEPII (pdf)
  • Introduction à l'Économétrie bayésienne 1, Banque de France (pdf)
  • Introduction à l'Économétrie bayésisenne 2, Banque de France (pdf)
  • Duration models, Paris I (pdf)

Quick Resume

  • Work Experience

  • Head of the Financial and Economic Research Division

    Banque de France 2022 - present

  • Deputy Head of the Financial and Economic Research Division

    Banque de France 2017 - 2022

  • Treasurer

    Banque de France Foundation for Economic Research 2015 – 2019

  • Research Economist

    Banque de France 2011 - 2017

  • Research Fellow

    Banque de France 2008 – 2011

  • Post-Doctoral Fellow

    UCLouvain 2007 – 2008

  • Teaching Assistant

    Institut du Travail, Strasbourg 2005 - 2007

  • Teaching Assistant

    Faculté des Sciences Économiques, Strasbourg 2002 - 2005


  • Education

  • Ph.D. in Economics

    University of Strasbourg I and BETA 2002 - 2006

    Modèles de durée multivariés avec hétérogénéité multiple: applications au marché du travail.

    Awards: Accessit to the Prize of the Association Française des Sciences Economiques, 2007.

  • Master in Econometrics

    University of Strasbourg I 2000 - 2002, ranking first

  • Bachelor in Econometrics

    University of Strasbourg I 1997 - 2000